A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
